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CHAPTER 3 THE EFFECTIVENESS AND SCOPE OF FISCAL STIMULUS
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Cross-country, cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty (epu) and financial market volatility between the us and japan. Our model includes indices of monetary, fiscal and trade policy uncertainty for each country, as well as three measures of option-implied stock market and exchange rate volatility, respectively.
Keywords: transmission of external shocks; cross-border spillovers; fiscal the literature on cross-country fiscal spillovers in europe began to grow rapidly.
The focus of this paper is not just on the within-country transmission, but also on the cross-country transmission or international spillovers of scal policy shocks. Using quarterly data from the late 1990s until 2019, we analyse the e ects of debt- nanced scal expansions using a bayesian vector autoregression (bvar) to identify government spending.
1 aug 2018 spillover effects from countries sending remittances.
Several major central banks announced new rounds of massive asset purchases following the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic. This policy instrument seems to have performed well for economies that have been implementing it since the global crisis, but its spillover impact on external countries has remained a bone of contention within the policy debate.
However, there was substantial heterogeneity across countries in how their financial markets and economies were affected by the crisis and ensuing global.
22 jun 2017 how do fiscal and financial shocks propagate from one country to another response to fiscal stimulus: theory and cross-country evidence”.
The magnitude of cross-country spillovers has strengthened with the economic integration and introduction of a single currency. Also, spillovers can be larger if fiscal consolidations are implemented in downturns.
Auerbach and yuriy gorodnichenko university of california, berkeley january 2013 in this paper, we estimate the cross-country spillover effects of government purchases on output.
Cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations in many oecd countries, government debt reached levels over recent years that call for reduction over the medium to longer term to ensure public finance sustainability.
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We also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables. Our findings suggest that cross-country spillovers have an important impact, and also confirm those of our earlier papers that fiscal shocks have a larger impact when the affected country is in recession.
We explore international spill-overs from fiscal policy shocks via trade in europe. To assess and quantify the channels through which a fiscal expansion stimulates domestic activity, foreign exports, and foreign output, we estimate a dynamic empirical model of government spending, net taxes, and output, and combine its estimates with a panel model of trade linkages across european.
We investigate cross-country fiscal policy spillovers through the integration of capital markets in a currency union and allow capital use in production to differ across countries. Following empirical evidence, we assume that production exhibits capital-skill complementarity.
31 may 2019 abstract this paper revisits the issue of cross‐country spillovers from fiscal consolidations using an innovative empirical methodology.
We estimate a panel var model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999- 2016.
Our findings suggest that cross-country spillovers have an important impact. The findings also confirm those of our earlier papers--namely that fiscal shocks have a larger impact when the affected country is in recession.
The magnitude of fiscal spillovers is likely to depend heavily on how exchange rates respond to fiscal shocks barry eichengreen and andrew rose write that we have little empirical knowledge of how the economy will operate if capital controls are adjusted at high frequency since controls have historically been adjusted infrequently.
Cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations antoine goujard* in many oecd countries, government debt reached levels over recent years that call for reduction over the medium to longer term to ensure public finance sustainability. This paper investigates the international transmission of fiscal consolidation shocks via trade flows.
Existing evidence points to a generally limited size of cross-country fiscal spillovers. Empirical studies focusing on the eu, find evidence of positive fiscal spillovers to foreign output via the trade channel. Structural models find in principle smaller or even negative spillover effects from a fiscal stimulus.
Using a measure of exogenous fiscal shocks in export markets, fiscal consolidation spillovers are found to slow domestic growth and decrease employment. When fiscal consolidation efforts are synchronised across partner countries, fiscal policies have large spillover effects on output.
When fiscal consolidation efforts are synchronised across partner countries, fiscal policies have large spillover effects on output. Spillovers of fiscal consolidations on growth are found to be initially larger between countries belonging to currency unions, though this larger impact vanishes over the medium term.
6 dec 2013 when fiscal consolidation efforts are synchronised across partner countries, fiscal policies have large spillover effects on output.
Furthermore, they examine the cross-country heterogeneity of these spillover country's openness to foreign trade and its exposure to the global financial.
Using a multi-country overlapping-generations model calibrated for 14 european union countries, we find that output spillovers are small with standard tax reforms.
(2016) interstate spillovers, fiscal decentralization, and public spending on medicaid home – and community-based services. Traditionally, central government is given the responsibility of stabilization and distribution while allocation is assigned to local government based on the demand for local public services (smoke 2001).
Fiscal consolidation in one country not only reduces domestic output (direct effect ), but also the output of other member countries (indirect/spillover effect).
We study fiscal policy coordination and fiscal policy spillovers in germany, france spain and italy using a time-varying coefficients var model for the period 19952014. While the four - country-specific cycles share large commonalities, fiscal policy coordination across countries,.
17 dec 2019 this paper analyzes the impact of fiscal spending shocks in a multi-country model with inter- national production networks.
22 may 2020 (2020) found financial uncertainty transmits the shocks that drive economic in various global financial variables, including cross-border credit and leverage.
Fiscal spillovers are found to be heterogeneous but generally positive among the larger euro area countries. The reaction of interest rates to fiscal expansion is an important determinant for the magnitude of spillovers. 1 introduction fiscal spillovers across countries have received increasing attention in recent years.
Summary this paper examines the spillovers of domestic fiscal expansion in a monetary union. Such a policy action leads to cross-country crowding-out effects on the one hand and cross-country multiplier effects on the other. The approach pursued is therefore an empirical one, using a computable general equilibrium (cge) model with a simple.
This paper discusses the rationale for coordination of fiscal policies in emu, focussing on cross-country fiscal spillover effects. It also offers a classification of different types of coordination mechanisms and assesses how the current eu framework for fiscal coordination is designed to address the spillovers.
Our findings suggest that cross-country spillovers have an important impact, and also confirm those of our earlier papers that fiscal shocks have a larger impact when the affected country is in recession. Acknowledgement: this paper was presented at the american economic association meetings, san diego, january 2013.
According to the received wisdom, domestic fis- cal stimulus benefits foreign output and employment via increased demand for imports as the home country's real.
Cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations in many oecd countries, government debt reached levels over recent years that call for reduction over the medium to longer term to ensure public finance sustainability. This paper investigates the international transmission of fiscal consolidation shocks via trade flows.
We estimate a two-country model of the us and canada over the post 2009 sample to study the cross-country spillovers of forward guidance shocks. To do so, we propose a method to identify forward guidance shocks during the fixed interest rate regime. Us forward guidance shocks have a larger impact than conventional monetary policy shocks.
Using generalised variance decompositions from vector autoregressions, we analyse cross-country, cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty (epu) and financial market volatility between the us and japan. Our model includes indices of monetary, fiscal and trade policy uncertainty for each country, as well as three measures of option-implied stock market and exchange rate.
Network-connectedness approach to study cross-country spillovers of economic policy uncertainty from these major economies to hong kong. To account for the small-open-economy nature of hong kong, we restrict 2 data on trade openness are sourced from the census and statistics department of hong kong special administration region.
Shocks to countries' financial sectors, such as banking crises and liquidity freezes shocks and of cross-border spillover effects from country-specific shocks.
28 jun 2017 this paper revisits the issue of cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations using an innovative empirical methodology.
First, they introduce refined measures of directional spillovers and net spillovers, providing an 'input-output' decomposition of total spillovers into those coming from (or to) a particular source (variable) and allowing to identify the main recipients and transmitters of spillovers.
Fiscal consolidation in one country not only reduces domestic output (direct effect), but also the output of other member countries (indirect/spillover effect). Fiscal spillovers are larger for: (i) more closely located and economically integrated countries, and (ii) fiscal shocks originating from relatively larger countries.
Fiscal spillovers in the euro area guglielmo maria caporale* brunel university, london, cesifo and diw berlin alessandro girardi istat, rome abstract this paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given emu member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area.
Bis papers no 97 financial spillovers, spillbacks, and the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination by pierre-richard agénor and luiz a pereira da silva.
Finally, shocks spill over in a heterogeneous way across countries.
Financial globalization and cross-country spillovers chris kubelec(1) and filipa sæ(2) abstract we analyse cross-border spillovers to gdp growth for a set of 18 advanced and emerging market countries from across europe, the americas and asia from 1980 to 2005.
This paper revisits the issue of cross‐country spillovers from fiscal consolidations using an innovative empirical methodology. We find evidence in support of fiscal spillovers in ten euro area count.
In terms of the domestic spillovers, we find that in china, the trade policy uncertainty (tpu) mostly dominants domestic monetary policy uncertainty (mpu) and fiscal policy uncertainty (fpu), while ustpu is affected by domestic mpu and fpu for most of the time.
When fiscal consolidation efforts are synchronised across partner countries, fiscal spillovers of fiscal consolidations on growth are found to be initially larger.
No 18578, nber working papers from national bureau of economic research, inc abstract: in this paper, we estimate the cross-country spillover effects of government purchases on output for a large number of oecd countries.
The focus of this paper is not just on the within-country transmission, but also on the cross-country transmission or international spillovers of fiscal policy shocks.
Addition, cross-country differences in the spillovers to cesee economies are examined in detail. The structure of this paper is as follows: section 1 puts our approach into the context of the existing literature on international fiscal policy spillovers in europe. In section 2, we introduce the key characteristics of our bayesian gvar model,.
Demand spillovers and intra-industry trade, rather than specialization, dominate in the process through which trade flows affect the cross-country transmission of shocks in europe. Introduction there is currently a debate in the literature as to whether intense trade between economies accompanies highly correlated business cycles.
In many oecd countries, government debt reached levels over recent.
This simultaneous tightening of fiscal policy raised concerns that such output losses might be exacerbated by negative spillovers from other countries. This paper presents some model-based simulations for the euro area with a view to gauge the cross-country impact of the fiscal measures adopted over 2010-13.
Studies based on multi-country models with financial market frictions. Keywords cross-border flows, international financial spillovers; macroprudential.
Intense fiscal consolidation processes carried out in the eurozone added a real world ingredient to the discussion. The paper “cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations”, by antoine goujard, perfectly fits the current, intense debate on the effectiveness of the fiscal policies.
Physical capital and labor are immobile factors, but trade in bonds is sucient for inducing international spillovers of national tax policies, aecting the global distribution of wealth, the size of the global capital stock and its distribution across countries.
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